Putting this up for argument rather than for agreement. I have read it twice and I am still not certain what it supports.
Prices dramatically below market are the strongest single signal, and the reason is arithmetic rather than suspicion. Synthesis, testing, and cold-chain shipping have floors. A price well under the floor means something was skipped, and the two things that get skipped are testing and content.
Where I think it is weakest: the completion rate deserves as much attention as the headline, because a large effect among those who finished is a different claim from a large effect among those enrolled.
The narrow version of the question is what a vetting checklist should actually contain, as opposed to a list of things that are easy to fake. Practical detail welcome, however dull — the duller the better.
Figures above are from the primary publication rather than the press summary. If a number here disagrees with one you have, post yours and we will work out which of us is reading a secondary source.
ben_calgary said:Prices dramatically below market are the strongest single signal, and the reason is arithmetic rather than suspicion.
ben_calgary has the substance of this right. The condition it depends on is worth stating. The pattern that distinguishes a bad batch from an exit is behaviour rather than product. A bad batch comes with communication, a reshipment offer and a batch number. An exit comes with slower replies, pressure toward less reversible payment methods, sudden discounting, and the same reassurance repeated without any new information. The product tells you less than the correspondence does.
ben_calgary said:Prices dramatically below market are the strongest single signal, and the reason is arithmetic rather than suspicion.
I disagree that testing history is decisive. It tells you what a supplier did when they were being watched. Continuity of behaviour under stress — a late shipment, a failed test, a complaint — is more predictive than any run of good results.
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Shop Reference StandardsAnswering the narrow version, because the broad one does not have a single answer. The useful checklist is about verifiability rather than presentation. Independent test results commissioned by buyers rather than by the seller, consistency across multiple batches over time rather than one flattering report, a physical address and a company registration that resolve, batch and lot numbers on the actual labelling, and a shipping practice that matches what the material needs. Everything a good-looking website provides is cheap to fake; none of the items above are.
DebRD_ATL said:The pattern that distinguishes a bad batch from an exit is behaviour rather than product.
Same pattern here, and in the same order. The detail I would add is minor and it is already implied above.